SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 58.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 17.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Gimnasia |
58.22% ( -0.36) | 24.12% ( 0.15) | 17.66% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 44.58% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.79% ( -0.24) | 55.21% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.55% ( -0.2) | 76.44% ( 0.2) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.2% ( -0.23) | 18.8% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.78% ( -0.38) | 50.21% ( 0.38) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.9% ( 0.12) | 45.1% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.99% ( 0.1) | 81.01% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estudiantes | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 14.16% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 11.84% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 9.43% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 6.6% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.76% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.96% Total : 58.21% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.6% Total : 24.11% | 0-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.54% Total : 17.66% |
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