SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 50%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
50% ( 0.14) | 23.04% ( 0.04) | 26.96% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 60.18% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.46% ( -0.31) | 40.54% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.08% ( -0.32) | 62.92% ( 0.33) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.6% ( -0.07) | 16.4% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.96% ( -0.12) | 46.04% ( 0.13) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.98% ( -0.28) | 28.02% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.33% ( -0.37) | 63.67% ( 0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 3.43% Total : 50% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.03% | 1-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.76% Total : 26.96% |
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