SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fluminense | Draw | River Plate |
39.38% ( -0.52) | 24.94% ( 0.15) | 35.68% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 57.87% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.53% ( -0.66) | 45.47% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.2% ( -0.63) | 67.8% ( 0.63) |
| Fluminense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.06% ( -0.55) | 22.94% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.29% ( -0.81) | 56.71% ( 0.82) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.09% ( -0.1) | 24.9% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.47% ( -0.14) | 59.52% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fluminense | Draw | River Plate |
| 2-1 @ 8.61% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.41% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 6.19% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.04% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.21% Total : 39.38% | 1-1 @ 11.69% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.94% | 1-2 @ 8.13% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 3.77% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.31% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.72% Total : 35.68% |
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