SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 41.08%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 28.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.39%) and 1-2 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.34%), while for a Instituto win it was 1-0 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | River Plate |
28.92% ( -0.06) | 29.99% ( 0.18) | 41.08% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 40.92% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.04% ( -0.55) | 65.96% ( 0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.44% ( -0.38) | 84.56% ( 0.38) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.89% ( -0.36) | 40.11% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.25% ( -0.33) | 76.75% ( 0.33) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.32% ( -0.35) | 31.68% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.9% ( -0.41) | 68.1% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 6.1% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 5.3% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.38% Total : 28.91% | 1-1 @ 13.34% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.7% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.44% Total : 29.98% | 0-1 @ 14.6% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 8.39% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 7.67% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2% Total : 41.08% |
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