SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 53.88%. A win for Brest had a probability of 23.08% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lens | Draw | Brest |
53.88% ( 0.22) | 23.04% ( -0.06) | 23.08% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 56% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.83% ( 0.1) | 44.18% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.45% ( 0.1) | 66.56% ( -0.09) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.67% ( 0.12) | 16.34% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.07% ( 0.21) | 45.93% ( -0.2) |
| Brest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.93% ( -0.08) | 33.07% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.33% ( -0.09) | 69.67% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lens | Draw | Brest |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.79% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.93% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 53.88% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.4% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.03% | 1-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.38% Total : 23.08% |
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