SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Watford had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Watford |
43.34% ( 0.38) | 25% ( -0.08) | 31.66% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 56.51% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.26% ( 0.26) | 46.74% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31% ( 0.25) | 69% ( -0.24) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.43% ( 0.29) | 21.58% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.34% ( 0.44) | 54.66% ( -0.44) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.06% ( -0.06) | 27.94% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.43% ( -0.08) | 63.57% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Watford |
| 1-0 @ 9.25% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.95% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.49% Total : 43.34% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.99% | 0-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.52% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 31.66% |
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