SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 65.79%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.54%) and 3-1 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
65.79% ( -1.37) | 18.12% ( 0.6) | 16.08% ( 0.76) |
| Both teams to score 61.19% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.3% ( -1.38) | 31.7% ( 1.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.79% ( -1.63) | 53.21% ( 1.62) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.96% ( -0.67) | 9.04% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.24% ( -1.63) | 30.76% ( 1.62) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.27% ( -0) | 32.73% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.72% ( 0) | 69.28% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
| 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 7.65% ( -0.14)1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.31)3-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 4.6% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.21)4-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.13)5-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.18)5-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.16)5-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.1)4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.17% Total : 65.79% | 1-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 2.96% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.3% Total : 18.12% | 1-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.24)2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.87% Total : 16.08% |
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