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Friday, July 19
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Premier League | Gameweek 27
Mar 3, 2024 at 3.30pm UK
Etihad Stadium
MU

Man City
3 - 1
Man Utd

Foden (56', 80'), Haaland (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Rashford (8')
ten Hag (57'), Varane (68')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.96%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 13.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.73%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (3.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester CityDrawManchester United
71.96% (-3.562 -3.56) 14.91% (1.507 1.51) 13.12% (2.055 2.06)
Both teams to score 66.53% (0.247 0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
77.92% (-2.274 -2.27)22.08% (2.273 2.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
59% (-3.187 -3.19)41% (3.187 3.19)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.52% (-1.021 -1.02)5.47% (1.02 1.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
78.62% (-3.064 -3.06)21.38% (3.063 3.06)
Manchester United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.38% (1.01 1.01)29.62% (-1.011 -1.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.34% (1.215 1.22)65.65% (-1.216 -1.22)
Score Analysis
    Manchester City 71.96%
    Manchester United 13.12%
    Draw 14.91%
Manchester CityDrawManchester United
2-1 @ 8.33% (0.512 0.51)
3-1 @ 8.06% (-0.041 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.84% (0.239 0.24)
3-0 @ 6.63% (-0.223 -0.22)
4-1 @ 5.86% (-0.448 -0.45)
3-2 @ 4.91% (0.111 0.11)
4-0 @ 4.81% (-0.514 -0.51)
1-0 @ 4.71% (0.465 0.47)
4-2 @ 3.56% (-0.167 -0.17)
5-1 @ 3.4% (-0.52 -0.52)
5-0 @ 2.8% (-0.518 -0.52)
5-2 @ 2.07% (-0.25 -0.25)
6-1 @ 1.65% (-0.387 -0.39)
4-3 @ 1.45% (-0.026 -0.03)
6-0 @ 1.35% (-0.365 -0.37)
6-2 @ 1% (-0.201 -0.2)
Other @ 4.55%
Total : 71.96%
1-1 @ 5.73% (0.708 0.71)
2-2 @ 5.07% (0.442 0.44)
3-3 @ 1.99% (0.098 0.1)
0-0 @ 1.62% (0.257 0.26)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 14.91%
1-2 @ 3.49% (0.515 0.52)
2-3 @ 2.05% (0.231 0.23)
0-1 @ 1.97% (0.359 0.36)
1-3 @ 1.41% (0.242 0.24)
0-2 @ 1.2% (0.245 0.25)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 13.12%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Luton 2-6 Man City
Tuesday, February 27 at 8pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Man City
Saturday, February 24 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 1-0 Brentford
Tuesday, February 20 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 1-1 Chelsea
Saturday, February 17 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Copenhagen 1-3 Man City
Tuesday, February 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man City 2-0 Everton
Saturday, February 10 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 0-1 Man Utd
Wednesday, February 28 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Man Utd 1-2 Fulham
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 1-2 Man Utd
Sunday, February 18 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-2 Man Utd
Sunday, February 11 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 3-0 West Ham
Sunday, February 4 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Wolves 3-4 Man Utd
Thursday, February 1 at 8.15pm in Premier League


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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