SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 57.4%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Western Sydney Wanderers had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.52%) and 1-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Western Sydney Wanderers win it was 1-2 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
57.4% ( 1.21) | 21.31% ( -0.34) | 21.29% ( -0.87) |
| Both teams to score 59.44% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.54% ( 0.45) | 38.46% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.25% ( 0.48) | 60.75% ( -0.48) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.76% ( 0.52) | 13.24% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.99% ( 1.03) | 40% ( -1.04) |
| Western Sydney Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.51% ( -0.52) | 31.49% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.12% ( -0.61) | 67.88% ( 0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.14)1-0 @ 8.43% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.65% Total : 57.4% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.31% | 1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.63% Total : 21.29% |
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