SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 50.87%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 27.29% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.75%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for NEC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for NEC.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Heracles |
50.87% ( 1.33) | 21.83% ( -0.37) | 27.29% ( -0.97) |
| Both teams to score 64.9% ( 0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.54% ( 1.02) | 34.46% ( -1.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.61% ( 1.14) | 56.38% ( -1.14) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.1% ( 0.8) | 13.89% ( -0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.68% ( 1.56) | 41.32% ( -1.57) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.37% ( -0.11) | 24.62% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.86% ( -0.16) | 59.13% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.16)2-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.19)3-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.18)4-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.1)4-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.78% Total : 50.87% | 1-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 6.54% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.18)3-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.39% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.2) 0-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.27)0-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.62% Total : 27.29% |
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