SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 37.19% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.81%) and 0-2 (5.03%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
37.19% ( 1.23) | 22.64% ( 0.08) | 40.16% ( -1.31) |
| Both teams to score 66.72% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.95% ( -0.22) | 34.04% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.08% ( -0.25) | 55.91% ( 0.25) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.03% ( 0.47) | 18.96% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.5% ( 0.79) | 50.49% ( -0.79) |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.34% ( -0.64) | 17.66% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.72% ( -1.11) | 48.28% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.07)4-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.66% Total : 37.2% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.96% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.64% | 1-2 @ 8.37% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 5.81% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 4.84% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 4.02% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.15)1-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.09)3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.11% Total : 40.16% |
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