Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 37.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.61%) and 2-0 (5.38%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
