SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 54.47%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 24.75% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.7%) and 1-3 (6.63%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
24.75% ( -0.09) | 20.78% ( -0.06) | 54.47% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 66.22% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.35% ( 0.2) | 31.65% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.84% ( 0.24) | 53.15% ( -0.23) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.12% ( 0.05) | 24.87% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.52% ( 0.06) | 59.47% ( -0.06) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.14% ( 0.11) | 11.86% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.86% ( 0.23) | 37.14% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.52% Total : 24.75% | 1-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.49% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.45% Total : 20.78% | 1-2 @ 9.33% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.63% ( 0.02)0-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 4.61% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.53% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.54% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 2.46% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.51% ( 0.02)3-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.83% Total : 54.47% |
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