Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 80.88%. A draw had a probability of 11.1% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 8.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-1 with a probability of 8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (7.36%) and 2-1 (7.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.13%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-2 (2.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
80.88% (![]() | 11.07% (![]() | 8.04% (![]() |
Both teams to score 64.09% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
82.61% (![]() | 17.39% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
65.72% (![]() | 34.28% (![]() |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
96.69% (![]() | 3.3% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
85.43% (![]() | 14.57% (![]() |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.28% (![]() | 33.72% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.62% (![]() | 70.38% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
3-1 @ 8% (![]() 3-0 @ 7.36% 2-1 @ 7.04% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 6.82% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 6.48% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 6.28% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 4.65% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 4.35% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 4.28% ( ![]() 1-0 @ 3.8% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 3.71% 6-1 @ 2.65% ( ![]() 5-2 @ 2.53% ( ![]() 6-0 @ 2.43% ( ![]() 6-2 @ 1.44% ( ![]() 4-3 @ 1.34% 7-1 @ 1.29% ( ![]() 7-0 @ 1.19% ( ![]() 5-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 4.32% Total : 80.88% | 1-1 @ 4.13% (![]() 2-2 @ 3.83% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.58% 0-0 @ 1.11% ( ![]() Other @ 0.43% Total : 11.07% | 1-2 @ 2.25% (![]() 2-3 @ 1.39% ( ![]() 0-1 @ 1.21% ( ![]() Other @ 3.2% Total : 8.04% |
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