SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 80.88%. A draw had a probability of 11.1% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 8.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-1 with a probability of 8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (7.36%) and 2-1 (7.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.13%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-2 (2.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
80.88% ( -0.01) | 11.07% ( 0.01) | 8.04% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 64.09% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 82.61% ( -0.01) | 17.39% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 65.72% ( -0.02) | 34.28% ( 0.02) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.69% ( -0) | 3.3% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 85.43% ( -0.01) | 14.57% ( 0.02) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.28% ( 0.01) | 33.72% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.62% ( 0.01) | 70.38% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 3-1 @ 8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.36% 2-1 @ 7.04% ( 0)4-1 @ 6.82% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.48% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.28% ( -0)5-1 @ 4.65% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.35% ( 0)5-0 @ 4.28% ( -0)1-0 @ 3.8% ( 0)4-2 @ 3.71% 6-1 @ 2.65% ( -0)5-2 @ 2.53% ( -0)6-0 @ 2.43% ( -0)6-2 @ 1.44% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.34% 7-1 @ 1.29% ( -0)7-0 @ 1.19% ( -0)5-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 4.32% Total : 80.88% | 1-1 @ 4.13% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.83% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.58% 0-0 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 0.43% Total : 11.07% | 1-2 @ 2.25% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0)0-1 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 3.2% Total : 8.04% |
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