Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 36.72%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 36.64% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
-0.72) 
0.16) 
