Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
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