Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.12%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Boston River win was 0-1 (9.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
