SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.05%). The likeliest La Luz win was 1-0 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| La Luz | Draw | Penarol |
28.28% ( 0.1) | 25.2% ( -0.01) | 46.51% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 53.93% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.75% ( 0.1) | 49.26% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.69% ( 0.09) | 71.31% ( -0.09) |
| La Luz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.43% ( 0.13) | 31.57% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.03% ( 0.15) | 67.97% ( -0.14) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.8% ( 0.01) | 21.2% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.92% ( 0.01) | 54.08% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| La Luz | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.65% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 28.28% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 9.28% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.05% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.8% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.86% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.07% ( 0)Other @ 2.51% Total : 46.51% |
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