Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 35.45%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.16%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Danubio win was 1-0 (12.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result
Danubio	Draw	Penarol
34.63% ( 0.01)	29.92% ( 0)	35.45% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 42.35% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.15% (

64.85% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.21% (

83.78% (

Danubio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.8% (

0.01)

35.2% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.04% (

0.01)

71.96% (

-0)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.36% (

-0)

34.64% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.64% (

-0)

71.36% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Danubio 34.62%

Penarol 35.45%

Draw 29.91%

Danubio	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 12.73% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.05% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.65% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.45% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.31% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.3% Other @ 2.14% Total : 34.62%	1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.19% 2-2 @ 3.74% Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.91%	0-1 @ 12.92% 1-2 @ 7.16% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.85% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.53% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.42% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.45%