SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.9%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 24.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
47.9% ( -0.42) | 27.21% ( 0.07) | 24.88% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 45.41% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.97% ( 0.01) | 59.03% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.51% ( 0.01) | 79.49% ( -0) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.27% ( -0.19) | 24.73% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.72% ( -0.27) | 59.28% ( 0.28) |
| Montevideo City Torque Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.33% ( 0.33) | 39.67% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.65% ( 0.3) | 76.35% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo City Torque |
| 1-0 @ 13.7% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 9.58% ( -0.11)2-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.46% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.28% Total : 47.9% | 1-1 @ 12.67% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.81% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.64% Total : 27.21% | 0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.4% Total : 24.88% |
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