SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 50.42%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portland Timbers | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
50.42% ( 0.04) | 22.78% ( -0.01) | 26.8% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 60.97% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.57% ( 0.03) | 39.43% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.23% ( 0.03) | 61.77% ( -0.03) |
| Portland Timbers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.16% ( 0.02) | 15.83% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.98% ( 0.05) | 45.02% ( -0.05) |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.44% ( -0.01) | 27.55% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.93% ( -0.01) | 63.07% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portland Timbers | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.04% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.7% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0)5-1 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 3.68% Total : 50.42% | 1-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.16% 0-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.77% | 1-2 @ 6.68% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.87% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 26.8% |
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