SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.72%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.27%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (2.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Chaves |
79.72% ( 1.27) | 13.36% ( -0.47) | 6.92% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 45.26% ( -2.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.68% ( -0.9) | 35.31% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.66% ( -1.01) | 57.34% ( 1.01) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.04% ( 0.06) | 6.96% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.49% ( 0.17) | 25.5% ( -0.17) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.64% ( -2.73) | 51.35% ( 2.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.42% ( -1.9) | 85.58% ( 1.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Chaves |
| 2-0 @ 12.69% ( 0.65) 3-0 @ 11.27% ( 0.61)1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.46)2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.18)4-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.43)4-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.1)5-0 @ 4% ( 0.24)5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.27)6-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.17)6-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.92% Total : 79.71% | 1-1 @ 6.35% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.31)Other @ 0.62% Total : 13.36% | 0-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.24)Other @ 2.42% Total : 6.92% |
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