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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Progreso |
33.61% ( -0.02) | 28.48% ( -0.02) | 37.91% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 46.22% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.88% ( 0.05) | 60.12% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.67% ( 0.04) | 80.33% ( -0.04) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.61% ( 0.01) | 33.39% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.99% ( 0.01) | 70.01% ( -0.01) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.38% ( 0.04) | 30.62% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.14% ( 0.05) | 66.86% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 11.21% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.28% 2-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.66% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.25% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0)Other @ 2.48% Total : 33.61% | 1-1 @ 13.27% 0-0 @ 10.22% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.31% ( 0)Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.47% | 0-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.86% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.16% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 2.25% Total : 37.9% |
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