SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 42.26%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
42.26% ( 0.16) | 26.64% ( 0.09) | 31.1% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 50.96% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.18% ( -0.45) | 53.82% ( 0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.71% ( -0.38) | 75.29% ( 0.38) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.81% ( -0.13) | 25.19% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.08% ( -0.17) | 59.92% ( 0.17) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.12% ( -0.41) | 31.88% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.67% ( -0.47) | 68.33% ( 0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.63% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 42.26% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.63% | 0-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.78% Total : 31.1% |
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