Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 37.24%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%).
