Rayo will be looking to take advantage of Real Madrid's busy schedule and injury problems, but the home side are in such disappointing form, so it is tough to back them. Los Blancos are on a bit of a roll at the moment, and we are fully expecting them to collect another three points this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 59.23%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 18.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.82%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
0.4) 
-1.07) 
