Under new management, both these sides are enjoying an excellent run of form and could end this weekend in the top four. However, Sao Paulo's home record this season is hard to overlook, and while Cruzeiro are unbeaten in their last three away games, they were fairly unconvincing when they played Atletico Mineiro, who have been their toughest away opponent so far this term.
As a result, while we are expecting a very close contest here, we feel the hosts will be able to edge the result by a slender one-goal margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 47.43%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 25.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Cruzeiro win it was 0-1 (9.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
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