SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 38.79%. A draw had a probability of 31.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8%) and 1-2 (7.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.59%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Boca Juniors |
29.8% ( -0.01) | 31.42% ( -0.14) | 38.79% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 37.92% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 30.29% ( 0.36) | 69.7% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.95% ( 0.23) | 87.04% ( -0.23) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.43% ( 0.21) | 41.57% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.94% ( 0.18) | 78.06% ( -0.18) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.9% ( 0.3) | 35.1% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.15% ( 0.31) | 71.85% ( -0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 12.8% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 5.89% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 0.9% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.21% Total : 29.79% | 0-0 @ 14.59% ( -0.2) 1-1 @ 13.41% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.33% Total : 31.42% | 0-1 @ 15.27% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 8% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.18% Total : 38.78% |
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