SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.57%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 8.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.2%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.63%), while for a SC Farense win it was 2-1 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
8.31% ( -0.03) | 14.12% ( 0.04) | 77.57% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.75% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.51% ( -0.32) | 33.49% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.72% ( -0.36) | 55.28% ( 0.36) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.49% ( -0.3) | 46.51% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.89% ( -0.23) | 82.11% ( 0.23) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93% ( -0.07) | 6.99% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.4% ( -0.19) | 25.6% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
| 2-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.33% Total : 8.31% | 1-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.87% Total : 14.12% | 0-2 @ 11.5% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 10.2% ( 0.05)1-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 7.81% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 6.79% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 5.2% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 3.61% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 2.76% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.03)0-6 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)1-6 @ 1.23% ( -0.02)2-5 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.36% Total : 77.55% |
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