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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Arsenal had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for an Arsenal win it was 1-2 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arsenal |
56.2% ( -0.15) | 22.11% ( 0.02) | 21.69% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 57.25% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.37% ( 0.08) | 41.63% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.97% ( 0.08) | 64.03% ( -0.08) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.33% ( -0.02) | 14.67% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.18% ( -0.04) | 42.82% ( 0.04) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.09% ( 0.17) | 32.91% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.51% ( 0.18) | 69.49% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 9.88% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.69% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.96% Total : 56.2% | 1-1 @ 10.29% 2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.1% | 1-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.36% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.37% Total : 21.69% |
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