SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.46%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
50.46% ( -0.09) | 23.51% ( 0.03) | 26.03% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 57.66% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.52% ( -0.07) | 43.48% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.12% ( -0.07) | 65.88% ( 0.08) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.68% ( -0.06) | 17.32% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.31% ( -0.11) | 47.69% ( 0.11) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% ( 0.01) | 30.27% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.56% ( 0.01) | 66.44% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
| 2-1 @ 9.63% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.88% Total : 50.46% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.76% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.29% 0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.05% Total : 26.03% |
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