SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 74.55%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 10.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 3-0 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.49%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-2 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
74.55% ( -0.33) | 14.75% ( 0.2) | 10.7% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 58.09% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.7% ( -0.66) | 28.3% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.88% ( -0.82) | 49.12% ( 0.82) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.57% ( -0.2) | 6.43% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.93% ( -0.56) | 24.06% ( 0.57) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.08% ( -0.27) | 37.92% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.31% ( -0.26) | 74.69% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-0 @ 9.18% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 8.4% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.18)4-0 @ 5.76% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 5.59% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.05)6-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.05)6-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.66% Total : 74.55% | 1-1 @ 6.49% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.24% Total : 14.75% | 1-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.63% Total : 10.7% |
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