Vitoria de Guimaraes have enjoyed a fine run of results in the month of March and this could kindle a late charge for the playoffs places. However, next up is a Sporting Lisbon side who they have failed to defeat in each of their last six encounters, while losing each of the last three. With their European dreams over, Sporting Lisbon will fully focus on their title defence and we predict they will maintain their fine form and come away with a comfortable win in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 51.95%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
