Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 28.1% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.31%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
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