Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 43.39%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
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