Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.05) 
