SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Derby County |
44.91% ( -0.08) | 25.36% ( 0.01) | 29.72% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 54.32% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.84% ( -0.01) | 49.15% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.77% ( -0) | 71.22% ( 0) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.13% ( -0.04) | 21.87% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.88% ( -0.06) | 55.12% ( 0.05) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.53% ( 0.04) | 30.47% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.32% ( 0.05) | 66.68% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Watford | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.36% Total : 44.9% | 1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 7.92% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.15% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.72% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
