Despite losing four of their last five Bundesliga away fixtures, only Bayern (3-0) beat Union by more than a goal.
While Bremen are anticipated to secure three points, the outcome might be closer than the form table suggests.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
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