SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zambia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Angola | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Cameroon | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 50.39%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Congo had a probability of 23.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Congo win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Zambia | Draw | Congo |
50.39% ( 0.71) | 25.86% ( 0.15) | 23.75% ( -0.86) |
| Both teams to score 48.05% ( -1.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.96% ( -1.23) | 55.04% ( 1.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.69% ( -1.02) | 76.31% ( 1.02) |
| Zambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.11% ( -0.2) | 21.89% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.86% ( -0.31) | 55.14% ( 0.31) |
| Congo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.52% ( -1.46) | 38.48% ( 1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.77% ( -1.42) | 75.23% ( 1.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Zambia | Draw | Congo |
| 1-0 @ 12.79% ( 0.52) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.34)2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.07% Total : 50.38% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.86% | 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.54% Total : 23.75% |
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