Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 45.72%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Troyes win was 0-1 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ajaccio in this match.
-0.18) 
0.04) 
