Major League Soccer

Sep 5, 2022 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
3 - 4
Montreal

Bernardeschi (5' pen.), Insigne (7', 90+3')
Criscito (23'), Laryea (45+4'), Bernardeschi (83')

FT(HT: 2-3)

Miller (19'), Mihailovic (21'), Kamara (43'), Johnston (54')
Choiniere (45+1'), Quioto (75'), Toye (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and CF Montreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Toronto 1-1 CF Montreal

TFC should be the desperate team heading into this encounter, but despite how far they have come over the past couple of months, their backline still lacks consistency and structure, two flaws which have cost them some valuable points. Montreal's backline have been equally poor, though this team have proven that they can be a potent attacking unit away from home, and we expect them to create their share of opportunities and eventually find the back of the net in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 43.53%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 32.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.

Result
Toronto	Draw	CF Montreal
43.53% ( 0.01)	23.86% ( -0.03)	32.61% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 60.92% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.86% (

0.17)

41.14% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.47% (

0.17)

63.53% (

-0.17)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.83% (

0.07)

19.16% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.17% (

0.12)

50.82% (

-0.11)

CF Montreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.36% (

0.1)

24.63% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.85% (

0.14)

59.14% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Toronto 43.53%

CF Montreal 32.61%

Draw 23.85%

Toronto	Draw	CF Montreal
2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.8% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.55% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.31% Total : 43.53%	1-1 @ 10.92% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.85%	1-2 @ 7.66% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.16% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 32.61%