SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Toronto | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 9 | Atlanta United | 29 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 29 | -10 | 32 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 6 | Toronto | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 29 | -10 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 56.19%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 21.99% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atlanta United | Draw | Toronto |
56.19% ( 0.3) | 21.83% ( -0.13) | 21.99% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 58.66% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.04% ( 0.38) | 39.96% ( -0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.67% ( 0.39) | 62.32% ( -0.39) |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.89% ( 0.22) | 14.11% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.26% ( 0.43) | 41.74% ( -0.43) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.29% ( 0.06) | 31.71% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.87% ( 0.07) | 68.13% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atlanta United | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.76% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.6% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.15% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.26% Total : 56.19% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 21.99% |
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