Home-field advantage and overall playoff experience should give the Red Bulls a significant advantage on Wednesday, which we believe will be enough to propel them into the next round.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 55.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 21.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
