SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for DC United had a probability of 25.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | DC United |
48.94% ( 0.06) | 25.18% ( -0.23) | 25.88% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.1% ( 0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.25% ( 1.04) | 50.75% ( -1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.35% ( 0.91) | 72.64% ( -0.91) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.24% ( 0.45) | 20.75% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.61% ( 0.7) | 53.39% ( -0.7) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.74% ( 0.7) | 34.25% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.05% ( 0.75) | 70.95% ( -0.75) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toronto | Draw | DC United |
| 1-0 @ 11.17% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.94% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.58% Total : 48.93% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.3)2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.62% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.22% Total : 25.88% |
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