SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Toronto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Toronto.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | New York City FC |
39.92% ( 0.03) | 25.34% ( 0.03) | 34.75% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 56.31% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.58% ( -0.15) | 47.42% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.37% ( -0.14) | 69.63% ( 0.14) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.47% ( -0.05) | 23.53% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.43% ( -0.07) | 57.57% ( 0.07) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.64% ( -0.11) | 26.36% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.49% ( -0.15) | 61.51% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toronto | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.18% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.13% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.05% Total : 39.92% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.33% | 0-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.98% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.51% 1-3 @ 3.55% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.25% Total : 34.75% |
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