Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Southport had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Southport win was 0-1 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
