SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 26.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Curzon Ashton win was 0-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Curzon Ashton |
48.81% ( 0.18) | 25.05% ( -0.09) | 26.13% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 52.71% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.95% ( 0.28) | 50.05% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.97% ( 0.25) | 72.02% ( -0.25) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.47% ( 0.19) | 20.52% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.97% ( 0.3) | 53.02% ( -0.31) |
| Curzon Ashton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.33% ( 0.07) | 33.67% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.68% ( 0.08) | 70.32% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Curzon Ashton |
| 1-0 @ 10.94% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.66% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.97% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.66% Total : 48.81% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.05% | 0-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.35% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.33% Total : 26.13% |
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