SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Southport had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Southport win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Southport | Draw | Alfreton Town |
27.9% ( 0.16) | 27.29% ( -0.01) | 44.81% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 47.41% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.42% ( 0.14) | 57.58% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.64% ( 0.11) | 78.36% ( -0.11) |
| Southport Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.72% ( 0.2) | 36.28% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.93% ( 0.21) | 73.07% ( -0.2) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.4% ( -0.01) | 25.6% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.52% ( -0.01) | 60.48% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southport | Draw | Alfreton Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.42% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.9% Total : 27.9% | 1-1 @ 12.83% 0-0 @ 9.29% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.29% | 0-1 @ 12.65% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.74% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.2% Total : 44.8% |
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