SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 54.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (6.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hereford United | Draw | Alfreton Town |
54.6% ( -0.09) | 24.41% ( 0.05) | 20.99% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 48.92% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.81% ( -0.13) | 52.19% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.1% ( -0.11) | 73.9% ( 0.11) |
| Hereford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.97% ( -0.09) | 19.03% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.39% ( -0.14) | 50.61% ( 0.14) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.43% ( -0.03) | 39.57% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.74% ( -0.03) | 76.26% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hereford United | Draw | Alfreton Town |
| 1-0 @ 12.49% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.36% 2-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.73% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.31% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.02% Total : 54.59% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.84% Total : 24.4% | 0-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.37% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.66% 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0)0-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 1.37% Total : 20.99% |
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