Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 37.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 1-0 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result
Alfreton Town	Draw	Hereford United
37.02% ( -0.23)	25.65% ( -0.31)	37.33% ( 0.54)

Both teams to score 55.45% (

1.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.38% (

1.37)

48.62% (

-1.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.26% (

1.23)

70.74% (

-1.23)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.38% (

0.5)

25.62% (

-0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.5% (

0.68)

60.5% (

-0.68)

Hereford United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.55% (

0.94)

25.45% (

-0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.73% (

1.27)

60.27% (

-1.27)

Score Analysis

Alfreton Town 37.02%

Hereford United 37.33%

Draw 25.65%

Alfreton Town	Draw	Hereford United
1-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.38) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.54% Total : 37.02%	1-1 @ 12.15% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 6.52% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.65%	0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 8.31% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.79% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 1.3% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.58% Total : 37.33%