Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 51.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 23.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
